South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0304ebaa73445e1682c94983cd9854ecd1cc1c9d4e9108ebf7a85ab170f1222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x576c…f218backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 43c | 730.19$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.51 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 56c | 174.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed Yes | 21c | 132.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 127.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0158…75a5backed No | 68c | 116.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 9c | 112.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…1991backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 38c | 98.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 26c | 86.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 65.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 58c | 63.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 73c | 55.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…9943backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes | 27c | 51.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 48.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 68c | 30.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 68c | 30.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 68c | 26.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 68c | 25.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked No | 68c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 68c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 68c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed No | 68c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…a7fdbacked No | 68c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed No | 68c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.