Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03dbe38ad10399d923f8e456132bdac30dfa11d8d2dafeda10fccd7c0e9e566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e4…3166backed Yes | 1c | 1,822$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 4c | 928.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 23c | 422.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 30c | 404$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 273.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 6c | 252.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 997 | 37.8%377 W · 620 L | +79.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 202.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 178$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 158.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 158$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 80c | 155.15$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 10c | 140.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 343 | 34.4%118 W · 225 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…1486backed Yes | 32c | 126.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 24c | 102.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 100.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 34c | 93.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 62c | 79.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 76.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 59.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…ba62backed Yes | 33c | 45.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…1e40backed Yes | 36c | 43.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 62c | 39.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…47febacked No | 66c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 30.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 66c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…8dc2backed No | 68c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 77c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 17.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 67c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.