Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c9b91c94b995359ccb8c980fc579c018627a4bb2a46916b688a6e56bc7a549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 1,019$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.58 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 633.48$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.93 | 341 | 61.6%210 W · 131 L | -22.0wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 532.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 68c | 511.65$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.35 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 340.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 327.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 997 | 37.8%377 W · 620 L | +79.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 23c | 165.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 25c | 163.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 159.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 159.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 156.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 343 | 34.4%118 W · 225 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 76c | 133.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 80c | 132.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 132.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 131.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 129$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 61c | 124.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 251 | 46.6%117 W · 134 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 122.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 50c | 117.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 115.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 107.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…7d5abacked Yes | 13c | 94.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 93.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 83.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 76.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…1486backed No | 77c | 75.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 61.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 61.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 55c | 52.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 45.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 45c | 41.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 41.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 35.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 48c | 35.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…3166backed No | 32c | 31.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…fdc5backed Yes | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 74c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 66c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 13.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.