Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x788d2c664af2843734ec7e1b6e71d961e81dc9a8d0f1d21af45b79df40d2c21d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 62c | 1,159$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.64 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 995.83$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.17 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 80c | 399.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 30c | 374.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.92 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 320$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.45 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 298.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.68 | 997 | 37.8%377 W · 620 L | +79.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 267.58$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 245$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 36c | 235.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.98 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 160$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 49c | 148.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 139.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 135.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 14c | 133.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 124.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 124.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 76c | 119.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 118.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 108.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 570 | 54.4%310 W · 260 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 91.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 73.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 73.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 61c | 65.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 68c | 64.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 60.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 33c | 56.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 41c | 56.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 55.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…454fbacked Yes | 24c | 49.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 45.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 73c | 41.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 439 | 51%224 W · 215 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 41.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 38c | 38.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…1486backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…6e7ebacked No | 72c | 30.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 25.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 62c | 18.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…b1f2backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 70c | 16.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 14.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.