NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa043e8304e8b4045bf68133d03c9db311444087480feb9b6be19c539a01a304b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Colts | 51c | 13,770$7,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,022.82 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Rams | 49c | 11,058$5,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,639.58 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Colts | 51c | 4,697$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.3 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked Rams | 51c | 3,097$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Rams | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Rams | 49c | 2,050$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Colts | 49c | 1,436$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.8 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Colts | 48c | 1,174$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.29 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colts | 51c | 1,049$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.91 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Rams | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Rams | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Rams | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Colts | 54c | 931.48$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colts | 50c | 752.98$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.49 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Rams | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…8547backed Colts | 50c | 598.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Colts | 50c | 500$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked Colts | 52c | 459.81$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Rams | 49c | 432.43$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Rams | 50c | 399.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed Rams | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colts | 50c | 348$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Rams | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Colts | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Rams | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…7ababacked Rams | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Colts | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Colts | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Rams | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Colts | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…12c3backed Colts | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rams | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Rams | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…48e2backed Rams | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Rams | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e7abbacked Rams | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Colts | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Rams | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Colts | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Rams | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rams | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Rams | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Rams | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Colts | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Colts | 42c | 45.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…fbafbacked Rams | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Rams | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…0e09backed Rams | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Rams | 48c | 36.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rams | 46c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Rams | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Rams | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Colts | 54c | 26.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)this page
- Colts vs. RamsRams won
- Colts vs. Rams: O/U 50.5Under won
- Colts vs. Rams: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Rams (-1.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-6.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.