NFL · resolved market
Will Doug Pederson be the first coach fired?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa06399e9dd6419411c75e80a82817fb228e228b3681cf5cb5e0f54cf5eb4d4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f35…7594backed No | 50c | 1,085$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.34 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 50c | 1,001$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.64 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 20c | 950$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 80c | 760$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 51c | 490.47$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.95 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…ba4abacked Yes | 69c | 290.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 45c | 278.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 50c | 199.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 172.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…54d9backed No | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…dba6backed Yes | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 74.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 49c | 61.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed No | 36c | 45.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 32cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…c93fbacked Yes | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…1d1ebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Doug Pederson be the first coach fired?this page
- Will Antonio Pierce be the first coach fired?No won
- Will Brian Daboll be the first coach fired?No won
- Will Matt Eberflus be the first coach fired?No won
- Will Mike McCarthy be the first coach fired?No won
- Will Nick Sirianni be the first coach fired?No won
- Will Robert Saleh be the first coach fired?Yes won
- Will Sean Payton be the first coach fired?No won
- Will Zac Taylor be the first coach fired?No won
- Will another coach be the first coach fired?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.