Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa06af34956171afca3403437fbfcf0382f21b07089cab4ff3a77170ee877d9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,991 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e54…7986backed No | 0c | 9,035$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…d809backed No | 0c | 5,752$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,400$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 1,056$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 22c | 923.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…f64fbacked No | 18c | 551.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 534.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 499.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 78c | 484.58$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 22c | 429.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 14c | 429.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 392$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.73 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 8c | 294.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.85 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 231.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked No | 75c | 215.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 11c | 209.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.35 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 177$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 165.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 8c | 159.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 154.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 17c | 141.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 43c | 137.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 133.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 129.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 62c | 129.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 8c | 127.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 113.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…40a5backed Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…103dbacked Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +300.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 28c | 109.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 108.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46de…5b2dbacked Yes | 17c | 107$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +502.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 18c | 105.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f45…f2eabacked Yes | 17c | 105$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +265.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 102.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…d64bbacked Yes | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…0175backed Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…c2fabacked Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +498.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 14c | 84.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 83.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 16c | 82.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 34c | 82.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 78c | 76.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 61c | 74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 60c | 70.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 61c | 65.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 31c | 64.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…2ccbbacked Yes | 16c | 61.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…efd3backed Yes | 19c | 58.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 73c | 54.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9209backed Yes | 24c | 54.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 47c | 53.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 50c | 51.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8f…4097backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 47.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…75e3backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 44.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 44.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 25c | 43.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 52c | 39.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4c…32a3backed No | 73c | 35.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 61c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 39c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 72c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 25.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 25.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb415…93f9backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 71c | 20.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 69c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 79c | 16.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 65c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…b390backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.