Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a720660cb375680e178f5c88769f556d658ef4130cda6b6fa5fd5c621a4a737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,064 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 921.42$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.85 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ef…6074backed Yes | 1c | 698.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 489.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 392$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 4c | 317.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 291.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 281.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 32c | 195.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 192.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 153.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 149.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 141.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 125.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 32c | 124.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 74c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 100.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 86.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 28c | 79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 78.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 26c | 76.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 74.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 74c | 60.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 60.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 56.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 29c | 45.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 40.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 38.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…f497backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 67c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…d2f5backed No | 72c | 26.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 24.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked No | 78c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 72c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…9af8backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…e84fbacked No | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…f4babacked No | 78c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.