MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09d3e633b2196104f6454bea60c867685861923a7e562470f71e299bdedb145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,794 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cleveland Guardians | 1c | 3,736$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 2,778$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.44 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 1,508$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.21 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 795.08$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.29 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 13c | 455.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 11c | 277.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 73c | 259$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 243$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 177.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 176.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 155.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 127$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 119.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 118.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 104.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 96.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 81.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 75.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 73.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 72.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 33.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…fdd9backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.