Premier League · resolved market
Will Man Utd vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ba4ee2472bd0f77aa21f973de5dd6a678c98e2bfed09c1c7677e70437ae664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 75c | 1,462$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.87 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a5e5backed Yes | 31c | 474.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…d71fbacked No | 75c | 459.75$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…4562backed Yes | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 369.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes | 30c | 338.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 69c | 299$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 76c | 219.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 25c | 181.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 77c | 155$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 21c | 149.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…c269backed Yes | 23c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked No | 79c | 97.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f1…f229backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…879bbacked Yes | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…f09abacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…fb74backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +208%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 76c | 34.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3035…1f37backed No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Man Utd vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2024-10-19?No won
- Will Man Utd win on 2024-10-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.