Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0cade0be13e3b42a6827ccf810d8b749b5c52e7c2376c495dbf9b77a0c78bd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 17c | 1,053$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.91 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 304.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 221.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 197.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 28c | 172.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 148.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 58c | 137.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 135.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 62c | 122.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 117.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 103.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 33c | 79.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 50c | 78.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…4edbbacked Yes | 16c | 75.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 50c | 63.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked No | 59c | 60.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 38c | 58.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 52.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 43.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 66c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 34c | 40.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 33c | 35.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 51c | 31.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 46c | 27.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 53c | 23.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 74c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.