Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff48ffb50d016470f4a3a2aceb104cd02ad466080d7eda12403f232b5ed7ddc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 49c | 508.45$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.36 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 62c | 386.79$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 326.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 64c | 307.9$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.87 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 29c | 299.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 298.56$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 279.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 9c | 278$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 35c | 276.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.23 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 269.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 25c | 185.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.76 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 22c | 165.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 26c | 146.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 65c | 137.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 50c | 136.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 63c | 108.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 66c | 99.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 95.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 90.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 76.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 25c | 72.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 68.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 18c | 65.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed No | 80c | 58.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 70c | 48.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 23c | 45.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…767ebacked No | 80c | 39.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 36c | 36.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 34c | 35.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 32.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 66c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 50c | 25.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 54c | 24.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 22.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 57c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 68c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 79c | 18.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 79c | 17.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 76c | 14.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.