NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e47933a41270bc1b44abc6d9eb21b14e080994a3e10e0e7675d6bf220765e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Over | 50c | 15,300$7,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,596.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 49c | 8,189$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 55c | 3,449$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.02 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…6098backed Over | 63c | 2,124$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 49c | 1,851$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.31 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Under | 54c | 1,485$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.19 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 50c | 1,475$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.25 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 662.81$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 541.18$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 49c | 308$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.05 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Under | 57c | 260$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 36c | 130.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Under | 56c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…bbecbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…7861backed Under | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Jets vs. DucksDucks won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.