NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5991ee70d39631ff8ea683bfd977b05f9ebf00774d0918ac9c1be40e621af38a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 60c | 11,000$6,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,576.89 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 4,479$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.18 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 40c | 794.75$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.55 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 62c | 572.58$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 40c | 518.5$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.1 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Under | 41c | 262$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.58 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…6098backed Over | 52c | 240.22$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 47c | 225$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 57c | 143$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked Over | 60c | 111.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 60c | 80.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 67c | 67.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…1badbacked Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Jets vs. DucksDucks won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.