Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ef8d64d33e13188493aa745d7e1ad089fc99ba55cddff48e54f543c2ec0d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 28c | 593.66$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 416.85$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 397.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 51c | 294.19$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.01 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 294.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 293$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 283.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 77c | 210.97$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 32c | 156.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…7284backed Yes | 69c | 126.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 123.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 59c | 120.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 116.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 19c | 109.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 103.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 98.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 97.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 77.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 24c | 74.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 69.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 59c | 68.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 64.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 38c | 59.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 55.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 55.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 45c | 52.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9342backed No | 76c | 49.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 72c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 62c | 46.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 54c | 44.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Yes | 29c | 37.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 41c | 36.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 33.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 75c | 33.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 37c | 30.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed Yes | 44c | 25.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 22.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 56c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…a421backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 77c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 77c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 80c | 12.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.