Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95bb08d8269a419afb639f33a3160272c60e67bf20271f1727ae831c6736589d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 899.59$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 35c | 745.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.16 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 28c | 719.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 299.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 61c | 295.68$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 281.6$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 260$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 251.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 14c | 238.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 238.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 212$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…4ed5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 4.4%5 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 143.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 118.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 112.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 96.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 96.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 96.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 94.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 25c | 88.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 70.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 60.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…6012backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 47.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 37.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 71c | 35.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 54c | 33.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 64c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.