College Football · resolved market
Marshall vs. Louisiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0f2d63a7a5c51a8a9b51bf717c96f97d7df5c4523deacb1d0428a61661a69b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisianaof Marshall, Louisiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Louisiana | 46c | 14,924$6,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,063.19 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Marshall | 54c | 7,419$4,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,006.26 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Marshall | 54c | 2,600$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Marshall | 54c | 2,087$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.5 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Marshall | 54c | 990$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.6 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Marshall | 54c | 935$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.2 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Marshall | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Louisiana | 33c | 573.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.13 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Marshall | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Marshall | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Louisiana | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Louisiana | 4c | 300$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.5 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Louisiana | 7c | 214.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Marshall | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Louisiana | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Marshall | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Louisiana | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Marshall | 55c | 80.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Louisiana | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Marshall | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Louisiana | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Marshall | 53c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Marshall | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…32a7backed Marshall | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.