Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
SMU Mustangs vs. Duke Blue Devils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0fec8378c1b771c53833e447c966a28fec26cb525984a1285a9eff20ebf778c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof SMU Mustangs, Duke Blue Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed SMU Mustangs | 8c | 8,408$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.61 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed SMU Mustangs | 15c | 5,832$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.81 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed SMU Mustangs | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed SMU Mustangs | 12c | 2,428$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.73 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…5b82backed SMU Mustangs | 9c | 2,086$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.79 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed SMU Mustangs | 17c | 1,686$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.63 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed SMU Mustangs | 16c | 1,427$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.15 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…e8b8backed SMU Mustangs | 11c | 1,398$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked SMU Mustangs | 10c | 1,200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed SMU Mustangs | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked SMU Mustangs | 24c | 811$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked SMU Mustangs | 6c | 643.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed SMU Mustangs | 13c | 604.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed SMU Mustangs | 14c | 570.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…7fafbacked SMU Mustangs | 8c | 565.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed SMU Mustangs | 10c | 560.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed SMU Mustangs | 17c | 462$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked SMU Mustangs | 15c | 402.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed SMU Mustangs | 12c | 323$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked SMU Mustangs | 13c | 258.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed SMU Mustangs | 19c | 221.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…1c1dbacked SMU Mustangs | 14c | 220.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked SMU Mustangs | 7c | 212.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…9d73backed SMU Mustangs | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed SMU Mustangs | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 126 | 17.5%22 W · 104 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked SMU Mustangs | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed SMU Mustangs | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…a1e5backed SMU Mustangs | 12c | 168.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked SMU Mustangs | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked SMU Mustangs | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Duke Blue Devils | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 49 | 87.8%43 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SMU Mustangs vs. Duke Blue Devilsthis page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 156.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-13.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-14.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.