TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Birk Ruud (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c7,378$27 inLost-$27.092448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes61c410.86$249 inWon+$161.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No55c389.1$215 inLost-$215.482259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No33c362.22$121 inLost-$121.016942%29 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes69c305.3$209 inWon+$95.831752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes39c270$106 inWon+$163.61711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Yes74c229.34$169 inWon+$60.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No35c176.86$62 inLost-$61.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d4…288bbacked Yes47c127.66$60 inWon+$67.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f1…893bbacked Yes60c115.94$70 inWon+$45.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b70…ed51backed Yes80c107.11$85 inWon+$21.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e2…1f24backed Yes44c100$44 inWon+$56944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes38c99.99$38 inWon+$61.993525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4773…81cfbacked Yes50c98.15$49 inWon+$49.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8986…5631backed No61c95.76$59 inLost-$58.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed No60c95$57 inLost-$56.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No61c80.49$49 inLost-$48.78237.8%31 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No46c78.77$36 inLost-$36.2311858.5%69 W · 49 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No53c78.45$41 inLost-$41.51668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+22.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes42c75.86$32 inWon+$444736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac39…107cbacked No38c42.76$16 inLost-$16.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb602…47ebbacked Yes47c42$20 inWon+$22.47475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+59.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked No57c34.04$19 inLost-$19.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f95…534ebacked Yes48c31.23$15 inWon+$16.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes75c20$15 inWon+$5.072948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.