Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa12bdb488e48559ce54df14bc70c385fec08a7089af66f3bb6f14fe03c565c55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,671$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.44 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 51c | 969.74$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.15 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 33c | 382.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 379.14$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.59 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 67c | 366.06$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.07 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 44c | 359.98$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 347.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 60c | 230.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked No | 29c | 230.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 49c | 225.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 151.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 150.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 60c | 145$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 141.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 120.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 118.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 70c | 107.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 24c | 104.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 89.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 88.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 40c | 85.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 58c | 80.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 62.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 57c | 59.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 39c | 51.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 25c | 46.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 44.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 54c | 36.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 72c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac60…5548backed Yes | 70c | 29.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked Yes | 52c | 22.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 58c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 60c | 20.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.