Fifa International · resolved market
Will Cyprus vs. Estonia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa162ea9ab26c3b782418410246bf5a02ab3389829bd25f9bd58a18155c3f68c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 75c | 1,493$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.95 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 38c | 799.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…7b1fbacked Yes | 66c | 736.23$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 36c | 656.71$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.15 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 33c | 469.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 68c | 441.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 125 | 54.4%68 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 20c | 333.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 43c | 329.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.85 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 59c | 142.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 134.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 69c | 130.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 68c | 125.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 34c | 80.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 31c | 62.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…9a1abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed No | 36c | 61.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…2ec6backed Yes | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cyprus vs. Estonia end in a draw?this page
- Will Cyprus win on 2025-11-18?No won
- Will Estonia win on 2025-11-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.