NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1654306b887110c78e522a1fb634bb058f91157b60c308788f6397084ca402f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 62c | 1,867$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.37 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 38c | 1,419$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 40c | 1,189$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.28 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 67c | 728$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.61 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 61c | 623.89$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.99 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Under | 40c | 350$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 39c | 341$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.17 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 337.86$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 323.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 62c | 213$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed Over | 62c | 201.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 41c | 118$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 116.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 41c | 106$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 31c | 80.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 40c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 34c | 56.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 58c | 53.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 50.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 42c | 33.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 30c | 33.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Over | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Over | 56c | 31.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 71c | 30.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Over | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. PenguinsSenators won
- Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Senators won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.