NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17c90a7432aad3dd95c3173fbc43d73db54fc6c6710a6b34902a55a6dcd8d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 1,495$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.5 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,281$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.77 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 50c | 999.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.67 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 713.66$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.83 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 50c | 650$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 335$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 51c | 275.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 244.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 149.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 34c | 120.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 30c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…7b9cbacked Under | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 54c | 42.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked Under | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 27.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 27.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 50c | 25.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. PenguinsSenators won
- Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Senators won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.