Champions League · resolved market
Will AC Milan beat Liverpool?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa16a7e38e3ff0cdd9fadfe0813dbfc18e8ed11d7629dfcd70c1dd123c4d91835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 24c | 7,402$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.44 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 76c | 7,234$5,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.11 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed No | 76c | 1,711$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 74c | 1,065$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 80c | 625.37$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 22c | 611$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 24c | 246.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 73c | 224.7$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…78e4backed Yes | 26c | 200.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 58c | 172.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…a8bcbacked Yes | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 73c | 124.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d8…3083backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…526abacked Yes | 27c | 93.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…5a5dbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…a734backed No | 76c | 63.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -8.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…165abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe667…f60fbacked Yes | 27c | 49.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…5250backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…8aacbacked Yes | 71c | 42.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan beat Liverpool?this page
- Will AC Milan vs. Liverpool end in a draw?No won
- Will Liverpool beat AC Milan?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.