Champions League · resolved market
Will Liverpool beat AC Milan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad29e5412f67490411607e34375e097f8ad756f4fa47f9c4c445afa74fe9af18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 51c | 7,363$3,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,745.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 50c | 5,862$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…4a44backed Yes | 50c | 1,533$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 50c | 1,404$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.83 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 50c | 537.25$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 51c | 506.41$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.44 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 35c | 463.75$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 49c | 417.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa649…cce2backed Yes | 50c | 315.56$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 50c | 304$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 51c | 289.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7724…7e7abacked Yes | 61c | 244$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 39c | 168$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 137.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Yes | 50c | 89.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…3931backed Yes | 42c | 76.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 50c | 73.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked No | 52c | 69.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed Yes | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 48c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d8…3083backed Yes | 33c | 53.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…3aedbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…7b53backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 52c | 49.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…466ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…39d9backed Yes | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…086bbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…beb4backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…4bd9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…6dedbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…9171backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed No | 68c | 28.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…63b3backed No | 52c | 21.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…084abacked Yes | 50c | 21.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 50c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…09d3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…13fabacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…a749backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liverpool beat AC Milan?this page
- Will AC Milan beat Liverpool?No won
- Will AC Milan vs. Liverpool end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.