Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa16a9c38a2efcd9c68521aea8cee8e80be78ef10427c62f1df485418935b93d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 624.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.37 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 18c | 597.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 567.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 345.31$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 336.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 240.44$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 26c | 223.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 219.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 212.25$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 33c | 195.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 30c | 166.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 149.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 133.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 127.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 32c | 102.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 31c | 100.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 89.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 65c | 84.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 69.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 76c | 65.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 61.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 75c | 59.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 73c | 58.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 53.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 70c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 68c | 51.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…7899backed Yes | 36c | 48.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 21c | 48.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 47.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…d51bbacked Yes | 25c | 43.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 40.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 74c | 39.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 67c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 34.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 75c | 34.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 71c | 32.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…d6fabacked No | 75c | 28.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 22.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 77c | 21.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a4…de86backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 75c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 75c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 66c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 74c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked Yes | 77c | 14.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 76c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.