Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd465e97345efaa8c22944f505ee84006394714bc78861bf98b6bfb20d27c52f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,457$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 52c | 663.04$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.7 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 48c | 530.17$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.77 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 54c | 418.06$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 31c | 362.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 47c | 362.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.35 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 283.78$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.06 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 281$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 219.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 188.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.08 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 10c | 179.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 40c | 166.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 157.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 52c | 150.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 148.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 142.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 125.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 120.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 116.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 58c | 111.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 109.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 48c | 100.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 65c | 100.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 91.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 68.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 64.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 63.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 47c | 62.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 61.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 55c | 57.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 41c | 51.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 50.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 63c | 47.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 46.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 56c | 44.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 41c | 43.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…7899backed No | 57c | 43.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 37c | 40.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 36c | 40.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 57c | 39.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 38.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed Yes | 49c | 36.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 56c | 35.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 44c | 34.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 32.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51c…325abacked No | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…0a9abacked Yes | 42c | 30.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 42c | 29.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 54c | 29.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 28.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 28.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 47c | 28.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 53c | 28.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 53c | 28.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 43c | 27.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…8f7bbacked Yes | 40c | 27.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 37c | 27.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 26.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…09febacked Yes | 49c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 56c | 21.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 71c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…91f6backed No | 53c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 63c | 20.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 59c | 20.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…29b5backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…d6fabacked No | 53c | 19.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 76c | 16.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.