Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6c25fc149de19b66f254e547f8ac163ce44291f541547e5e367dabbe29c5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,064$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,286$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 39c | 972.7$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.37 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 39c | 785.71$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.01 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 694.06$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.04 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 63c | 644.84$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.44 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 64c | 464.25$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.06 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 462.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 409.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 300.25$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.93 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 42c | 268.53$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 54c | 241.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 227.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 218.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 14c | 218.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 178.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 17c | 177.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 177.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 176.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 157.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 140.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 138.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 11c | 137.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 54c | 136.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked No | 66c | 134.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 128.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 107.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 65c | 106$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 53c | 104.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 53c | 104.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 62c | 97.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 18c | 95.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 83.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 77.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 78c | 77.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 16c | 76.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 51c | 74.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 64c | 69.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 69.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 32c | 69.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Yes | 16c | 67.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 64.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 63.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 17c | 61.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 25c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 78c | 47.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 57c | 43.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 76c | 43.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 43.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 41.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 39c | 41.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 66c | 41.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 37c | 40.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 44c | 32.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 48c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 78c | 27.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 26.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 60c | 23.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…1d03backed No | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 77c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.