South American Leagues · resolved market
Club León FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa184207eb2a5e59f39e9f153e7767ad77cc3cb0cc71b811aee9801a7b6b91468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 17c | 3,953$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 3,012$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 2,382$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.23 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 18c | 2,329$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,530$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.88 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 23c | 1,305$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 9c | 1,105$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 423.24$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.17 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 73c | 267.6$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 20c | 242.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 9c | 192$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 32c | 137.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Under | 79c | 125.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Under | 80c | 98.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked Under | 77c | 82.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 70c | 74.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…8380backed Over | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 22c | 47.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Under | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f47…742ebacked Under | 79c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club León FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5this page
- Club León FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club León FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club León FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club León FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Club León FC (-2.5)FC Juárez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.