Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa193c875614594df92450e2e8e0a8329029d3b72a56e32c38f4ea69e896626a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,992 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Shpilit | 15c | 13,232$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.75 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Team Lynx | 73c | 3,512$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.82 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 1,949$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.95 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Shpilit | 20c | 1,750$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.08 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Team Shpilit | 44c | 1,583$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Lynx | 69c | 1,007$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.87 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Team Shpilit | 12c | 835.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Team Shpilit | 8c | 784.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedce…412ebacked Team Shpilit | 16c | 505.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Team Lynx | 62c | 394.19$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 76c | 314.34$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Shpilit | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…6181backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 293.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Team Lynx | 80c | 286.45$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Team Shpilit | 16c | 272.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Shpilit | 43c | 212.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Team Shpilit | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Team Lynx | 78c | 197.47$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Team Lynx | 55c | 174.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked Team Lynx | 66c | 149.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Shpilit | 18c | 126.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Team Lynx | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 54c | 73.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Shpilit | 40c | 62.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Team Shpilit | 26c | 57.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Team Lynx | 66c | 48.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Team Shpilit | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Team Lynx | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - CCT PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.