Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96674d1f9069350bb57c175a286274ea56097dd23c5351f0bf6d4145b6614981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Shpilit | 31c | 8,274$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.39 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Lynx | 61c | 7,138$4,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,753.2 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Shpilit | 29c | 4,007$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.05 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Team Lynx | 73c | 3,707$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.46 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 73c | 3,512$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.32 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Team Lynx | 71c | 1,410$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.08 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 31c | 835.64$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.19 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Shpilit | 30c | 736.02$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Team Shpilit | 31c | 548.1$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Team Shpilit | 24c | 509.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 79c | 482.5$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Shpilit | 26c | 426.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…d043backed Team Lynx | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Team Lynx | 75c | 350.4$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Team Shpilit | 14c | 350$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Shpilit | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…6517backed Team Shpilit | 30c | 294.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Shpilit | 32c | 221.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Shpilit | 32c | 208.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Team Shpilit | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Shpilit | 16c | 199.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Team Lynx | 61c | 195.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 69c | 181.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Team Lynx | 74c | 159.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Team Lynx | 69c | 152.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Team Shpilit | 29c | 138.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Team Shpilit | 29c | 126$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedce…412ebacked Team Shpilit | 9c | 121.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 71c | 114.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 94.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Team Lynx | 58c | 92.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…831cbacked Team Lynx | 77c | 91.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Shpilit | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Shpilit | 19c | 72.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x76a5…555cbacked Team Lynx | 77c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Shpilit | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Team Shpilit | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed Team Shpilit | 44c | 40.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b431backed Team Shpilit | 28c | 38.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 56c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Lynx | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…1d19backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 32.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Team Lynx | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Team Shpilit | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Team Lynx | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Team Lynx | 79c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…581ebacked Team Lynx | 79c | 14.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - CCT PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.