South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d5606ee2dd0776ce63d9f664eb61196c9f78f2bca6218e9d3a3442d18dbe7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 6,721$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,677.4 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Over | 1c | 6,489$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Over | 61c | 6,159$3,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,756.57 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 38c | 2,644$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.2 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 2,465$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.83 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 1c | 2,052$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 1,203$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.45 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 46c | 1,080$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.12 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 599.62$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 303.73$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Over | 54c | 299.43$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 43c | 297.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 54c | 282$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.88 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 40c | 270.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.55 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 46c | 233.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 63c | 185.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 178.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 12c | 115.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 47c | 115.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 49c | 112$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 34c | 108$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 20c | 100.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…1e03backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 47c | 76.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 24c | 54.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 45.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 47c | 36.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Over | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…a164backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…0242backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 35c | 29.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…9e4bbacked Over | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 44c | 27.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…d5fdbacked Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 57c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)CA Paranaense won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 5.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: São Paulo FC O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.