South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85b1c13af24c4cdd5d9c45a648f10b0f9e46aa50f3e39986ccb113b1436d347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 1c | 4,820$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 32c | 4,688$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…d371backed Over | 42c | 4,600$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Under | 3c | 4,166$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 3,659$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 61c | 3,158$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.6 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…32a0backed Under | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 1,970$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 4c | 1,750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Under | 3c | 1,250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 66c | 1,151$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.37 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.08 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 68c | 985.75$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.31 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Under | 62c | 791.4$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.67 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…6b98backed Over | 41c | 714.82$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 635.55$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.21 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 59c | 573.76$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.52 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Over | 40c | 422.1$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.48 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 38c | 384.31$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.45 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 383.12$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.92 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 58c | 322.91$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 296.16$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Under | 58c | 204$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 57c | 175.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 163.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 33c | 135$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 62c | 108.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 42c | 92.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 54c | 75.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 40c | 72.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 40c | 59.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 40c | 48.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 59c | 31.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…6e45backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -26%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 43c | 29.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 59c | 29.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 28.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Over | 41c | 27.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 60c | 23.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Under | 59c | 19.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)CA Paranaense won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 5.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense: São Paulo FC O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.