MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f473e1f8e46c14bb49b47e58114e605c38e432a262a1dd86b849f8f57bd4c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 5,952$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 5,925$3,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,488.42 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 3,808$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 2,018$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.47 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 1,062$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.74 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 16c | 969.8$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.53 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 900.66$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.01 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 660$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 488.16$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.03 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 354.4$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.85 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 307.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 212.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 192.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 155.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 137.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 127.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 72.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 66.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 62.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 56.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 50.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 42.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 40.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 37.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.