MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc259457540ac9f6e9ad8cc4ad795a8af24b8a0b43fd23542264e021f78b5d12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 52c | 16,441$8,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,891.63 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 11,588$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,493.19 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 7,451$3,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,556.06 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 53c | 4,717$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.98 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 2,180$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.63 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,083$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 1,352$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.04 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 53c | 986.04$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.44 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 54c | 649$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.54 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 584.57$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.75 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 53c | 518.57$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.73 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 47c | 465.91$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.98 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 449.25$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.18 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 441.47$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 52c | 373.9$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.47 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 48c | 283.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Under | 48c | 277.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.22 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 200.09$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 140.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 53c | 130.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 53c | 116.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 53c | 95.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Over | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 81.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 47c | 80.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 52c | 58.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…57ebbacked Under | 47c | 56.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 53c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 253 | 56.9%144 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 53c | 24.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…5f41backed Under | 48c | 22.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.