MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17f00b1fbf616bf77d55f22b346a0980a4fd12cc6b10d451d662d7855f25eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354b…4744backed Under | 58c | 5,191$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 3,392$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 44c | 1,916$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.46 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 1,810$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 55c | 1,266$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.3 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,233$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.36 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 45c | 1,200$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 42c | 1,154$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.32 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 434.26$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 399.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 354.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.25 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 55c | 320$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 247$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 161.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 151.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 126.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 120.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 57c | 109.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 45c | 99.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 88.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 56c | 80.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 61.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…dc02backed Under | 56c | 50.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 46.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 45c | 46.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 44.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 49c | 22.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.