TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,928 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Under52c1,694$888 inWon+$806.168,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over46c1,229$565 inLost-$565.181,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over46c1,229$565 inLost-$565.182,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over68c499.97$340 inLost-$339.9826860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under55c419.43$232 inWon+$187.749,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under77c322.58$248 inWon+$74.8111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c253.88$149 inWon+$104.5712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under32c203.13$65 inWon+$138.1363943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over35c201.25$71 inLost-$71.4177353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed Over21c182.19$38 inLost-$38.263821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under35c140$49 inWon+$912347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over49c135.76$67 inLost-$66.985,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under54c112$60 inWon+$51.528,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under32c100$32 inWon+$681,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over21c74.57$16 inLost-$15.6667444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over22c65.04$14 inLost-$14.013,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under34c55.31$19 inWon+$36.766,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Under50c51.11$26 inWon+$25.6144737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over43c48.93$21 inLost-$21.188,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b1b…18bcbacked Over70c34.87$24 inLost-$24.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under50c23.02$11 inWon+$11.5710,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Under80c15$12 inWon+$31973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under78c14.95$12 inWon+$3.281,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.