NFL · resolved market
NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f4d47ea48dc7683042c292dfb8e64addd5e4e6c03d121d17f1133b92afc6be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 2,039$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 1,401$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.53 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 1,004$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.9 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 48c | 830.88$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.82 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 244.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 53c | 80.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 40c | 64.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 60.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…56c7backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 53c | 28.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jets (-1.5)Jets won
- 1H Spread: Jets (-2.5)Jets won
- Jets vs. SteelersJets won
- Jets vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineJets won
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 36.5Under won
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 37.5Under won
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: NYJ (-1.5)NYJ won
- Spread: NYJ (-2.5)NYJ won
- Spread: PIT (-1.5)NYJ won
- Spread: PIT (-2.5)NYJ won
- Spread: PIT (-3.5)NYJ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.