NFL · resolved market
NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x219c170bf008eef69514b6540e97b33b9c94ce43441a088243ad9e3aedf27178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 55c | 9,885$5,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,436.69 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 45c | 3,698$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.76 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 45c | 3,239$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 45c | 2,100$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 2,001$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.86 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 58c | 1,317$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.01 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 53c | 686.04$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.34 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 598.37$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.44 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 56c | 265.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…9e05backed Under | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 42c | 216$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 103.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 42c | 84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 45c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Over | 58c | 39.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 36.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jets (-1.5)Jets won
- 1H Spread: Jets (-2.5)Jets won
- Jets vs. SteelersJets won
- Jets vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineJets won
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 37.5Under won
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 38.5Under won
- NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: NYJ (-1.5)NYJ won
- Spread: NYJ (-2.5)NYJ won
- Spread: PIT (-1.5)NYJ won
- Spread: PIT (-2.5)NYJ won
- Spread: PIT (-3.5)NYJ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.