NFL · resolved market

NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 37.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8afa2a5158ca08cc689df4fdcba0f5d364a0136ad1837985ed765d6b9725b942

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,480 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over	50c	12,425$6,212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,212.29	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under	50c	6,699$3,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,349.5	173	50.9%88 W · 85 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over	51c	3,665$1,876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,875.91	152	52.6%80 W · 72 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	48c	3,497$1,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,826.23	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over	56c	2,455$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.13	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Under	49c	2,000$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	143	49%70 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	44c	1,922$846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,076.24	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	-4.8wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under	50c	1,763$881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$881.28	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	49c	907.46$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$467.27	225	50.7%114 W · 111 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under	46c	632.47$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.74	92	40.2%37 W · 55 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under	50c	500.06$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.03	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Over	55c	297$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.35	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x746e…68cabacked Over	53c	222.63$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.99	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.7wins	-0.25per pick	51cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	50c	205.12$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.56	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc59…35f7backed Under	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked Under	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad3…1af6backed Under	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Under	45c	96$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.8	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb42…176ebacked Under	50c	90$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Over	55c	89.72$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.35	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over	54c	80.13$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.51	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under	48c	74.69$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.84	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa8…9fb3backed Under	48c	72.92$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.92	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+102.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	48c	71.94$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.38	148	50%74 W · 74 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under	51c	66.94$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.59	104	55.8%58 W · 46 L	+6.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Over	54c	65.36$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78fb…56bcbacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2175…4b33backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62cd…7b19backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Under	46c	56.42$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.62	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69d2…a218backed Under	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Over	54c	50.56$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b66…582fbacked Under	50c	46$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under	34c	36.58$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.14	75	52%39 W · 36 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under	47c	32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.96	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+6.1wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x803e…7331backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7488…9cfbbacked Under	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ea…fa08backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe91c…0cf9backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd1…6fe4backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Under	47c	29.04$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.29	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75d6…5e9bbacked Under	50c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ff…7d0dbacked Under	50c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd691…fcc6backed Over	51c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under	58c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a46…2482backed Under	50c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Under	48c	21.4$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.13	133	39.8%53 W · 80 L	-10.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

NYJ vs. PIT: O/U 37.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event