Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f4f692238e52fefb9aec092179d708a13d93a6a0808e4b00ef9174d48500b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,983 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 72c | 5,418$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.9 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 2,425$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.04 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 27c | 1,766$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.32 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Team Nemesis | 1c | 1,314$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -71%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Falcons | 78c | 1,120$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.85 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Nemesis | 26c | 984.91$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.46 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Nemesis | 25c | 790.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Nemesis | 29c | 749.92$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 727.44$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.01 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…3bc1backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 568$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 78c | 564.75$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 24c | 507.65$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Nemesis | 9c | 411.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 360.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Nemesis | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Team Falcons | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Falcons | 79c | 243.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Falcons | 71c | 195$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54cf…e36dbacked Team Nemesis | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Falcons | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Team Nemesis | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 31c | 79.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 72.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis | 21c | 72.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Falcons | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Team Nemesis | 20c | 56.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons | 69c | 55.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…8521backed Team Falcons | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed Team Falcons | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons | 70c | 46.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons | 71c | 46.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons | 73c | 44.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Nemesis | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Team Falcons | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…101cbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.