Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6171d2004a188ceea6026d976a80b266a390d7cff4784ff2f8ccc0bc675ad653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,223 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 18c | 9,422$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.25 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 73c | 9,185$6,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,439.59 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Team Nemesis | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Nemesis | 13c | 3,580$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.46 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…21aabacked Team Falcons | 79c | 3,252$2,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.11 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Falcons | 73c | 2,463$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.88 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Nemesis | 12c | 1,711$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,179 | 43.1%508 W · 671 L | +41.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 1,472$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Team Nemesis | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -71%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 865$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Nemesis | 19c | 805.51$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Team Nemesis | 34c | 727.92$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 11c | 510.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 483.08$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Team Nemesis | 26c | 477.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Nemesis | 27c | 462.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 17c | 392.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Nemesis | 19c | 359.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Team Falcons | 74c | 344.75$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Team Falcons | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,247 | 44.4%554 W · 693 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…bc62backed Team Falcons | 74c | 204.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Nemesis | 19c | 190.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 907 | 53.7%487 W · 420 L | +50.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 152.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Team Nemesis | 18c | 146.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 128.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Falcons | 75c | 115.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Nemesis | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Team Falcons | 78c | 95.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 26c | 94.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Team Nemesis | 14c | 80.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 67.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Team Falcons | 75c | 66.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 149 | 65.8%98 W · 51 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 64.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 63.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons | 68c | 46.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…20a2backed Team Nemesis | 28c | 44.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…551ebacked Team Falcons | 76c | 30.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Team Falcons | 77c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Team Falcons | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…8544backed Team Falcons | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.