Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f68f39e01276af60d2ec7976c4a12c5fb11e83e939cbb160f710a2f29f6394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 60c | 1,137$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.34 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4a6fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,129$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 554.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.61 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 60c | 542.99$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.04 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…641fbacked Yes | 39c | 417.22$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 40c | 380.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.44 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…8fb0backed No | 33c | 368.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 254.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked Yes | 77c | 249.77$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 248.17$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 40c | 245.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 61c | 221.63$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 220.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 36c | 219$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 41c | 218.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 209$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 36c | 199.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 34c | 171.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 155.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 61c | 152.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 63c | 151.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 130.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 74c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 36c | 115$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 71c | 101.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 38c | 100.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 39c | 100.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 99.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…bfcebacked Yes | 29c | 84.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 52c | 78.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 34c | 70.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 61c | 64.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…c02ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 17c | 57.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 32c | 56.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 69c | 56.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 56c | 53.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…c717backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 63c | 47.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…c3abbacked Yes | 32c | 47.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 45.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 68c | 41.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 41.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…0af7backed No | 63c | 40.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 27c | 39.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 54c | 37.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 28c | 37.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac6…65cdbacked Yes | 42c | 36.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 34c | 35.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 39c | 35.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 70c | 35.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1367…7084backed No | 63c | 35.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…bf28backed Yes | 39c | 33.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 45c | 32.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…d193backed Yes | 40c | 31.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 42c | 30.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…0e11backed Yes | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 43c | 28.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 73c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0430…b061backed Yes | 40c | 25.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9914…cef0backed No | 62c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…f2d1backed No | 60c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 72c | 20.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…14aabacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 64c | 17.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 16.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…7cacbacked Yes | 71c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…7be9backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.