Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f61eed4d2075839bb6c59223dcc7ff7abe48dd39022d26086f0b6f44abc4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 69c | 2,154$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.31 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,087$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…05e4backed Yes | 39c | 640$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 509.08$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.72 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 70c | 420.43$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.51 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 29c | 397.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.85 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 18c | 296.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.08 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 293.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 57c | 250$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 247.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 65c | 245.95$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…641fbacked Yes | 34c | 239.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 42c | 192.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 19c | 173.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 35c | 172.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked Yes | 29c | 163.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 38c | 149.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 146.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 137.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 133.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 32c | 115$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 66c | 112.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 21c | 111.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 110.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 107.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 102.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 101.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 35c | 100.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 48c | 98.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 95.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 36c | 94.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 60c | 91.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 31c | 87.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 62c | 84.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 84.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 80.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 36c | 78.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…3318backed Yes | 28c | 71.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 70.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 68.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 45c | 67.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 66.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 59c | 65.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 64.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…93e2backed No | 67c | 63.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 38c | 63.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 43c | 61.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 24c | 60.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 40c | 58.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…ca6dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 36c | 56.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 71c | 56.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 22c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 24c | 54.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 29c | 52.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…5148backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe421…cc2abacked Yes | 37c | 47.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 68c | 47.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…9dedbacked Yes | 36c | 44.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…1fa4backed No | 70c | 39.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…7cacbacked Yes | 36c | 38.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…cf95backed Yes | 36c | 37.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 36.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…29b0backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 37c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…b3acbacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c9dcbacked No | 76c | 15.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -5.6wins | -0.43per pick | 74cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.