Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Perú Rejects (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa21d08f098c6046f12da29e51b0d9365e9b58e9da1c4d8a08944539d4aaa188e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Perú Rejectsof Heroic, Perú Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9024…a444backed Heroic | 2c | 5,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Perú Rejects | 52c | 3,954$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.06 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Heroic | 64c | 3,654$2,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.72 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 44c | 2,780$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.16 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Perú Rejects | 74c | 2,005$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Heroic | 65c | 1,535$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.76 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Heroic | 49c | 1,454$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.07 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Perú Rejects | 48c | 1,131$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.19 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Heroic | 48c | 1,005$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.58 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Heroic | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Perú Rejects | 52c | 640.04$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…1254backed Heroic | 24c | 628.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Perú Rejects | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Perú Rejects | 49c | 510.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.48 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Perú Rejects | 61c | 480.8$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.51 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Heroic | 73c | 411.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Perú Rejects | 32c | 392.23$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.48 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Heroic | 50c | 390$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Perú Rejects | 45c | 357.89$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.74 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…92c8backed Heroic | 61c | 348.54$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Heroic | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Perú Rejects | 35c | 290$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Heroic | 11c | 268$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Heroic | 10c | 231.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Perú Rejects | 45c | 199.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Perú Rejects | 66c | 141.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Perú Rejects | 49c | 122.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Perú Rejects | 47c | 114.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Heroic | 56c | 86.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76d1…73d5backed Heroic | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Perú Rejects | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Heroic | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…d209backed Heroic | 71c | 61.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Heroic | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Perú Rejects | 25c | 51.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Heroic | 48c | 42.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…f346backed Perú Rejects | 42c | 37.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Heroic | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Heroic | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…9229backed Heroic | 53c | 19.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…94ffbacked Heroic | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Perú Rejects (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Perú Rejects - Game 1 WinnerPerú Rejects won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Perú Rejects - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.