Tennis · resolved market
ITF Changwon: Sera Nishimoto vs Onyu Choi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2215a5fbde755579e4a9ab266fe45fcdc408917f65bb65c44e25d8f48fe370e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sera Nishimotoof Sera Nishimoto, Onyu Choi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Sera Nishimoto | 65c | 771.88$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.03 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Onyu Choi | 74c | 506.95$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.17 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…022bbacked Onyu Choi | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 145 | 31.7%46 W · 99 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…f5f7backed Sera Nishimoto | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sera Nishimoto | 13c | 499.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.72 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Sera Nishimoto | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Onyu Choi | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Onyu Choi | 44c | 214.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Onyu Choi | 67c | 175.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Sera Nishimoto | 13c | 156.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Onyu Choi | 61c | 106.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Sera Nishimoto | 21c | 98.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Sera Nishimoto | 19c | 80.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Sera Nishimoto | 36c | 68.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…67f0backed Onyu Choi | 52c | 55.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Onyu Choi | 42c | 54.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Onyu Choi | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Onyu Choi | 46c | 24.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Onyu Choi | 57c | 22.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f3…e397backed Sera Nishimoto | 55c | 21.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Onyu Choi | 55c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…c512backed Onyu Choi | 58c | 20.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Sera Nishimoto | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…360ebacked Onyu Choi | 76c | 14.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.