Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2252cdfb8a9b1f300396c72341c42d4fc4a9089544a10482d5a617282636918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,018$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 15c | 1,531$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 692.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 377.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 183.62$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 171.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 168.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 7c | 152.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 13c | 95.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 93.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 92.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 66c | 66.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 66.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 19c | 59.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 56.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 54.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 73c | 47.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 69c | 30.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…a0c7backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 67c | 28.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 26.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…0908backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 69c | 18.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…9134backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.