Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb54ca78736219e12eb5b6b5e84d4f43aaefc534805ad2bf18ae757b2decc43c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 63c | 729.25$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 713.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 17c | 302.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 299.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 229.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 195$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 193.35$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 134.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 79c | 121.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 109.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 39c | 101.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 98.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 95.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 83.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 22c | 80.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 80.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 60.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 76c | 57.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 76c | 56.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 80c | 54.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 39c | 51.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 69c | 50.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 50.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 27c | 49.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 49.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 39c | 46.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 44c | 39.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 32c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 67c | 31.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 31.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 67c | 30.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…a0c7backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 79c | 28.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 28.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…0908backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 23.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 22.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 22.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 74c | 21.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 62c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 73c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 69c | 17.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.