Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa25c7fdddf309d4adc30ebf2a272255943a50dfce4847fefb0acad50f2fcc709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,888$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 699.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 658.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 555.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 6c | 492.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 324$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 292.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…ab83backed Yes | 6c | 275.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 11c | 225.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 77c | 152.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 73c | 134.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 128.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 80c | 127.58$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 18c | 120.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 111.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 110.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 102.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 31c | 95.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 89.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 18c | 84.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 64.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 58.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 56.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 20c | 52.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 24c | 50.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 69c | 48.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…25a1backed Yes | 24c | 42.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 71c | 40.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…99f3backed No | 71c | 23.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 65c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 78c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 69c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.