TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b8f…1b4fbacked No1c25,640$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295671.5%1 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No2c8,079$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.018969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No2c1,471$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No17c1,203$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes43c690.83$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.776,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c666.21$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.512,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes11c640.1$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.531,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No4c548.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9529653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x691d…3bf8backed No2c532.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No48c500.45$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2249038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c489.91$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.877,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes35c459.41$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.891,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No10c395.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No28c352.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No74c349.8$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes14c324$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.471,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c273.95$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.364,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c268$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.582,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No21c264.88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.761821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked Yes29c259.55$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No8c257.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5434319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c256.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No66c256.67$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2122675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes15c247.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0933243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes15c246.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2091,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No34c234.06$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.074131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c230.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.9517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No10c214.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No76c212$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.031,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes10c208.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.881,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes11c199.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8943525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed No14c199.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9410924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c196$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed Yes13c188.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.096018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes15c183.22$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8614826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e8b7backed No13c170.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.545117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8073…25febacked Yes14c164.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.112030%6 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes17c159.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8930046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes19c158.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.091618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes59c151.42$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.011,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4c…444cbacked No70c148.2$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.554429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked No16c145.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.058667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9198…f83ebacked Yes67c145.07$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd10…7b05backed No9c140.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c128.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes24c128.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9792028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes40c126.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.461,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes32c124.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5417355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes27c119.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7611038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No73c112.28$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4521676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes80c111.78$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3611515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes33c104.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5521440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes13c102.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0639541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes23c101.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.442321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+152.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes16c100.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7924046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No13c89.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.848957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No15c88.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3311925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No16c86.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8624932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes14c86.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1186847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes28c85.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6511436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1efd…2cbdbacked No36c84.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.544955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No17c84.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72d…9e9ebacked No80c78.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633987.2%34 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No78c76.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6117066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes29c76.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes57c67.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.025736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06fc…d28fbacked No73c67.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…75abbacked No39c62.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.23771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No64c53.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.231,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbe…139ebacked No32c51.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed Yes30c38.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7117555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No71c35.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa29…ec42backed No73c34.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick70cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No65c33.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1857232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.617364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73ce…d2bebacked No68c29.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes38c26.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5815275.7%115 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed No74c26.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.66137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd50…c0a8backed No69c26.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c69…9867backed Yes42c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.051758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…8158backed No63c25.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No51c25.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No73c21.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.394748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cd8…1e4abacked No76c21.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No69c20.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.995062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22be…ba43backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52982.8%24 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2dcf…68bbbacked Yes76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c99…cc90backed No77c18.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No67c16.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8414961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca20…998abacked Yes68c15.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.046100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7149…e7efbacked No77c13.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.142356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.